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Temperatures rising

The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began in the 1660s. Summer heatwaves are occurring more frequently, and in winter there are fewer frosts.

Globally, over the past century, the average temperature of the atmosphere near the earth’s surface has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius. The scientific consensus is that global temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius above 1980 - 1999 levels by the end of the 21st century, depending on the levels of future greenhouse gas emissions.

• More on climate change in the UK Opens new window
• Watch a short film on the causes and effects of climate change Opens new window
• Transcript of a short film on the causes and effects of climate change

Changing sea levels and temperatures

UK coastal waters have warmed by about 0.7 degrees Celsius over the past three decades. Also, the average sea level around the UK is now about 10 cm higher than it was in 1900.

Globally, the sea level could rise by 18 to 59 cm by the end of the century. Rising sea levels would swamp some small, low-lying island states and put millions of people in all low-lying areas at risk of flooding.

• Watch a humorous short film about the impact of climate change on one farmer Opens new window
• Transcript of humorous short film on the effects of climate change on one farmer

See the effect on temperatures and ice caps with Google Earth

You can use Google Earth to see how climate change could affect the planet over the next century - and view the loss of Antarctic ice shelves over the last 70 years.

• See how climate change could affect the planet with Google Earth Opens new window

Extreme weather

Since rain records began in 1766, the amount of winter rainfall in England and Wales has risen, and over the last 45 years it has also become heavier. The autumn and winter floods in 2000 in the UK were the worst for 270 years in some areas, and flood damage now costs the UK about £1 billion a year.

Globally, climate change means that extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and tropical storms, will become more frequent and more dangerous.

• Download ‘The climate is changing’ from the Environment Agency (PDF, 974K)
• Help with PDF files

Plants and animals

There are already changes to the way plants and animals live in this country. The period between spring and autumn when plants grow is now a month longer in central England than it was in 1900.

Further changes in rainfall and temperature will affect many animal and plant species around the world. Some species might be unable to adapt quickly enough, and habitats might not be available for them to move into. If global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius, 30 per cent of all land-living species will be threatened by an increased risk of extinction.

The rising cost

The Association of British Insurers (ABI) estimates that the increased cost to UK households due to extreme weather events will be up to four per cent extra each year.

The economic costs of climate change are expected to be huge, as indicated in the recent Stern report on the economics of climate change. The report estimates that not taking action could cost from five to 20 per cent of global GDP every year, now and forever. In comparison, the cost of reducing emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around one per cent of global GDP each year.

• Read the Stern Report from HM Treasury Opens new window

Food and water

As temperatures increase and rainfall patterns change, crop yields are expected to drop significantly in Africa, the Middle East and India.

Water availability for irrigation and drinking will be less predictable because there will be more variable rain, and salt from rising sea levels may contaminate underground fresh water supplies in coastal areas. Droughts are likely to be more frequent. Up to three billion more people could suffer increased water shortages by 2080.

Disease

With rising temperatures, diseases such as malaria, West Nile disease, dengue fever and river blindness will shift to different areas. It is predicted that 290 million additional people could be exposed to malaria by the 2080s.

Rainforests

Large areas of Brazilian and central African rainforest could be lost if climate change results in significant reductions in rainfall in these areas – and this would be on top of the forest already being cut down to clear land for agriculture. These forests currently absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide which would otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

The big picture

There may be some big challenges ahead, but progress is being made already. In the last few decades, many difficult environmental problems in the UK, such as smogs and lead pollution, have been successfully tackled. Nine out of ten people now have materials for recycling collected from their home.

There is still time to positively influence the future, and you can help minimise further changes and adapt to the new situation through decisions and actions which are often quick and easy to put into practice.

• Greener living: how is it going so far?
• Greener living: a quick guide to what you can do

More useful links

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - climate change science Opens new window
• Global effects of climate change - the Energy Saving Trust Opens new window
• View the 'My CO2' film